Monday, 22 February 2016

Cameron's final betrayal


I have just listened to the Prime Ministers statement and subsequent questions on the so-called EU reforms. A detailed analysis is required of it - and as usual, the torrent of lies requires a good deal more learning and understanding to bring sense to it. Such will follow when a transcript becomes available.

This post in the mean time just my initial thoughts. I don't recall any time in my life when I have seen such cross-party sycophancy in support of the Prime Minister. Without looking at the hard numbers it would appear the house is in agreement that we should remain in the EU and the fact the prime minister has lied to the house on multiple grounds is evidently tolerable if the ends justify the means.

What we did hear was an unequivocal statement from Mr Cameron that he would not be seeking re-election and that keeping the UK in the EU was is "only agenda". This will be the primary preoccupation of the media in the morning, as they retreat to their comfort zone. They will let the details of the reforms slide and let the lies go unchallenged.

But it is significant in and of itself. The subtext being that the PM is well aware that he has pulled a fast one, and though it sufficient to pull of a referendum win, it is insufficient to pull off a general election victory even when pitted against Corbyn.

This will likely reignite speculation over Boris Johnson's future position. By this time, I don't imagine I will care any less. Should Britain end up with such a buffoon as prime minister then it's a fate much deserved. If on the other hand it is Osborne, then it's business as usual - empty, presentation politics, devoid of substance, delivered by soulless men and women. A natural consequence of replacing democracy with administration.

And so to the substance, there is no treaty on the table. There is no reform on offer - an in every sense the relationship with the EU remains the same. Subordinate, with the EU holding the final say in the laws we adopt. In support of this we saw multiple repetitions of the same lies with regard to the true origin of legislation and our influence in shaping it.

The prime minister successfully lodged a number of lies that will be difficult to challenge when offer up alongside a number of inconvenient truths the Leave camps have yet to successfully address, with Leave MPs still unable to comprehend that Article 50 is the necessary legal instrument by which we leave the EU.

In this, while we saw total recall and consistency of the hackneyed europhile memes, we saw no real agreement on what Leavers want to achieve or even a clear idea of how it could be done.  In every sense, the Leave campaign is intellectually bankrupt and without vision - and their vulnerability is entirely self-inflicted.

Listening to the overall thrust of the Prime Minister, he was correct in much of what he says in terms of closing down most of the Brexit options. The timescales and complexities are simply incompatible with the reality. In this, those familiar with the Flexcit arguments could immediately see that Flexcit does answer the challenges, and comes down to resolving just two basic arguments; where the law really comes from and how much influence Norway has. That was a winnable argument. Arguing for full separation and the immediate end of single market membership was not.

Since the "still pay, no say" mantra is a favoured not only by the europhiles, it is also used by Ukip hard liners, the chances of making a winning argument out of it are now nil. But if you were ever in any doubt that the UK political establishment holds the people in contempt, today is your absolute proof. And if you ever needed confirmation that the media is no longer fit for purpose, this is it. This is a triumph of ignorance from all sides.

Though the baying hyenas of Westminster cannot sign away the country fast enough - and we are now a one party state where the only real dispute is the pace of our surrender, with the "anti-establishment" opposition leader chastising the prime minister for not signing the country away already, this still has to be handed over to the people.

It is my view that the public have shown far too little inters, far too late and will likely swallow the lies put before them. I do have faith that there are enough people to awake enough to make it a close call, and that is what we should now strive for, but for the time being, my instincts tell me that we are staying in the EU.

That said, as this blog has noted before, this vote will resolve nothing - the fudge will be remembered and the Tories will be punished. There will be a bloody civil war in the Tory party and if they think putting a token eurosceptic (now a wholly meaningless term) at the helm will fix anything, especially one as vile as Johnson, they are dreaming.

Moreover, the eurosceptic movement will need to take a long hard look at itself. They will most likely seek to blame anybody but themselves but I know I am not alone by a long shot in saying the eurosceptic aristocracy have delivered this defeat and that Nigel Farage is ultimately the architect of it, with Arron Banks as the executor. There will have to be a reckoning.

It is my view that Ukip will have to be wound up in that it is simply too unappealing for reasonable people to find a home within it, and its leaders too unpalatable to ever unite behind. Those who believe in true conservative values and democracy have no home in the Conservative party either - or any other party now. It may even be that party politics is no longer the way to achieve change.

Though in common with many Ukip tweeters today, never before have I hated our political class and our career politicians more than I do today - and I am presently wishing fates upon them that could not be uttered publicly without sacrificing a good deal of personal credibility. For the removal of doubt it involves a belt-sander and a bottle of vinegar.

What can be said with certainty now is that there are no political certainties in domestic politics now - and if you thought it was toxic before, you ain't seen nothing yet. It is about to get more ugly that it has been for a generation. In that, David Cameron can take full credit. He has earned his place in history as the man who sold out Britain.

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