We will have negotiated some kind of control on freedom of movement though it won't be anything like what the hard liners demand. They are going to call it Brexit in name only because it will not deliver their fantasy.
There is no stopping Brexit though. No court case or parliamentary sabotage can stand in the way of it. We are now past the point of no return. In fact, any remainer moves to stall Brexit are a total waste of time because the Brexit they are playing for is one that is already in the pipeline. They are kicking at an open door. The hard Brexit scenario is a media myth and there is no evidence to to suggest Mrs May is pushing for it.
The only way Brexit can have the catastrophic effect that many predicted and expected is through a steadfast determination to do harm to the UK economy. Since there is no compelling benefit to ending customs cooperation and much depending on continuity, we will not see any moves to interfere with the status quo.
The rest of the Article 50 settlement will be a series of transitional arrangements which will need to be revisited a number of times over the next decade. The effects of Brexit will be felt but there will be no cliff edge. In this there will be winners and losers, some prices will go up, some will go down. I wouldn't place any bets which way it will go. All we can say for a fact is that Britain and Europe are going to change.
More than anything we are going to see a cultural shift. Now and then prices of things do go into flux and things get shaken up a little but things eventually settle down. Brexit is no different. Sooner or later the markets will realise that there is little tangible effect on supply chains. The real change will be the way in which political business gets done where we will see trade and international politics once more at the forefront. We are going to see a series of major changes to the structure of domestic government in order to adapt and implement the new settlement and that will present a number of opportunities.
What I think the key change will be is a government very much focussed on defensive measures to deal with Brexit fallout where once again the national interest is the first concern. In this I expect we will see a great deal more industry consultation before governments sign us up to international treaties and I expect we will be more guarded about it. I think we are going to see an injection of realism.
There are two ways you can look at this. Remainers will see this as the UK turning inward. They will call it isolationism. They can call it what they want. They lost. They no longer matter. In practice though, what it really means is that the UK will be more cautious about going along with international fads in the same way the USA is. A hugely welcome development.
At the very top of international politics there is a politically correct groupthink strongly connected with the global NGOcracy whereby virtue signalling "world leaders" can parade their right on credentials. It is a bubble entirely disconnected from the people they notionally serve whereby they sign up to commitments with no real consultation or consent. That is how we ended up this deep in the EU to begin with.
If anything the Brexit vote has shown that our tolerance for their vanity parades is wearing thin. One thing the remainers were right about is that Brexit was a huge gamble. We could have ended up with a fool like Andrea Leadsom as Prime Minister and Brexit could well have been a self-inflicted wound. Knowing the risks and accepting them, the public still voted to leave. We are that serious about reining in our politicians.
Because of this, Brexit will leave a scar on the psyche of our governments for a long time. For a long time they have been doing things their way without any reference to what the public want, forgetting whom they serve, instead parading their virtue to a global gallery of NGO automatons, mistaking captured activist bases for public will. It is a perverse feedback loop they have engineered for themselves by using our money to pay NGOs.
This is how the establishment has become deeply rotten, infected with a globalist ideology. And though globalism means many things to many people, in this context it is a culture of soft left transient academics and bureaucrats acting in service of a global agenda using climate change as its fig leaf. What it is in reality though is a coup on all the governments in the West - a coup to subvert democracy and ensure a permanent left wing revolution - ensuring all of the pillars of civic society are on the globalist payroll.
This is why Brexit is only part of the solution. This is why a halfway house Brexit is insufficient. There are still many battles to fight and severing the ties between the globalists and our political and academic institutions is still a major priority. That though cannot be done in a single bound hence why this blog advocates a staged exit.
From Obama to Azevedo, we were warned by the greater and the good not to leave the EU, not because they have any particular concern for the prosperity of UK voters but because Brexit really does upset that apple-cart and they know as well as I do that Britain turning away from this globalist love-in will soon see an end to its monopoly. To my mind this can't come soon enough and that is what makes hard Brexit superficially tempting, but I don't want to take the economy down in the process.
I don't see Brexit as being inward looking, but if being inward looking means examining what British people want and seeking their consent then that is no bad thing. Globalisation can be a good thing but I do not seek a global government and I definitely don't want a global government made up of vain and narcissistic politicians who believe that the subversion of democracy is in the greater good.
In this we should make no apology for Brexit. We need to take ownership of our politics and keep our politicians on a tight leash. They've had free reign for twenty years now and they have driven a massive migration crisis, a major financial catastrophe and inflicted untold misery with their climate change dogma. They had their shot and now we are taking that power back.
The age of Kinnock, Mandeleson, Blair, Cameron, Major, Heseltine and Miliband is over. Their ilk have been in power for all of my adult life. They have had everything their way with near total domination of the narrative, hollowing out civic institutions, destroying the voluntary ethos, confiscating our property, selling off our assets and plundering our wallets. Now its their turn to sit on the benches and gripe.
What we are seeing from remoaners is an anguished cry that the levers of power are no longer theirs to do with as they please. These truly obnoxious, venal and vain people can't have it their own way anymore. Democracy is making a comeback and they are going to cry about it. The soft left globalist consensus is dead and only the spoiled brats and tyrants mourn its passing. That the likes of Oliver Kamm, Polly Toynbee, Owen Jones and Nick Cohen are horrified by Brexit tells you absolutely everything you need to know. Condescending, smug know-nothings who blather about "neoliberalism".
In the end, Brexit was not an endorsement of the Brexiteer morons and that will soon become apparent. More than anything it was a rejection of the pious leftist establishment and the globalist orthodoxy they have imposed upon us. I am somewhat resigned to the fact that Brexit will be a bit of a damp squib and there are many more battles to fight but the shrill and pathetic cries of the remoaners really tell us better than anything that Brexit is a step in the right direction. It's time to rub their noses in it and enjoy it. They need a taste of their own medicine.
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