Supposedly things are going to pick up next week when the government publishes its position papers which I suppose I will have to churn through but one already suspects that whatever they have dreamed up will be something the EU cannot and will not agree to. In a week where many are comparing Brexit to the battle of Dunkirk, I rather expect it's going to end up looking more like Stalingrad. An ill-conceived strategy, under heavy fire, bogged down and forced to retreat.
The lack of clarity and a plan will see this going round in circles, held back by Tories who haven't grasped the basics and never will. That means a lot could happen in the next few months.
We could end up crashing out of the EU, or there could be a move to oust May and possibly even another general election. A vote of no confidence could set that ball rolling. I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine. All the while there are those in some quarters watching to see how the disarray can be exploited to keep us in the EU. I think that would have to be negotiated with the EU and I expect there would be a price tag.
Doubtlessly this would be celebrated by the remain crowd but I actually don't think it would do them much good. The current disarray over Brexit is the product of a collapse of political competence. This isn't a sudden development. Brexit, being the first major political challenge for a very long time, has exposed how utterly weak our politics is, with our media not far behind.
Should we end up remaining in the EU then it will be an admission that we are not remotely equipped to pull off something like Brexit. As much it would enrage half the country I think it would be demoralising in more subtle ways. The only catalyst for change will have been quashed, leaving us to persist with this utterly broken system - to be ruled over criminally inept quarterwits.
In some respects I think that could even be worse than a no-deal Brexit. For sure the shelves would stay stocked and the lorries would keep moving and the pound may recover (slightly) but I wouldn't see political confidence returning to the UK. Brexit has exposed the UK as a politically spent country.
We were told that Brexit has divided the country, but again I would point out that those divisions were already there. I can only see those divisions becoming more sour should we remain - and without an impetus for change, our political class would seek to gloss over it and return to their business as usual. They were already held in deep contempt before the referendum. Imagine what would happen then.
I don't want to speculate but we would be forced to confront the reality that our government is incapable of delivering change. At that point disaffection would turn into outright hostility. We would still have a major political crisis on our hands and one that could turn deadly. Looking across the pond we can see that America is not a happy country and on the brink of something ugly. I think that could happen here.
The ultimate conceit of the remain brigade is to say that Brexit has unleashed political turmoil. You could only say that if you weren't attuned to what was going for the last decade. This hasn't appeared out of nowhere. The referendum just opened the pressure release valve.
The fact that remainers say this stuff is actually indicative of the mindset. I've seen Twitterers posting pictures of the 2012 Olympics opening - nostalgic for Britain's image as a progressive modern country - now dragged into the dirt by unthinking plebs manipulated by a big red bus. But that is remainer narcissism all over.
The 2012 Olympics were crass. A Blairist veneer of "cool Britannia" - choreographed by Danny Boyle - a fawning self-congratulatory display of leftist emotional incontinence. If you ever wanted a totem of British vanity and self-absorption, that was it. Not surprising that those who believed that bogus self-image would be shocked and surprised by Brexit.
As much as there is a political disconnect in the UK, there is also a cultural one. The government and the BBC projects a metro-leftist value system - one it imposes on the rest of us. Their values are not our values - and the EU is an extension of that. The self-image of the EU as a progressive and benevolent entity is one that very much suits the narcissism of our own rulers.
This is not without harm. In the rush to broadcast their right-on credentials they will leap on any bandwagon going. More often than not this results in a number of financial obligations we can ill afford. We sign up for targets on renewable energy, we sign up to conventions of foreign aid, we commit our forces to misadventures like Libya.
And what has that delivered? Farm land plastered with solar panels, useless wind turbines, colossal and destructive waste on foreign aid, and an accelerated migration crisis which is still murdering thousands of people every year.
Course, if you're a shallow liberal europhile then all this is fine. Renewable energy is universally good, as is immigration - and foreign aid is above criticism. It's usually a remainer who will tell you how proud they are of our aid spending - because it's oh-so-progressive and compassionate (regardless of how much is wasted and how many people it kills). But, hey, it's a binding target so it's not up for debate - so you better learn to love it.
Ultimately these people are people who see no connection between intent and consequence. The same people who believe you can wave a magic wand and legislate poor people into wealth. The same people who push for increases in minimum wage and then are surprised when their local supermarket is 100% automated.
What makes people so angry is that those who make these policies and sign us up to these rules are the ones least likely to be affected by it. The ones who suffer the direct consequences in higher energy bills, problem immigration, higher taxes and fewer jobs are those who have the least say in it. And of course if they do get angry, well it's because they're just working class racist thick plebs who lack sophistication and compassion.
What makes Brexit necessary is to deprive our politicians of the means to impose yet more burdens upon us. The public cannot afford any more of the same and the country cannot afford it either. Moreover we want accountable politicians and we don't want them signing away powers. We don't want binding targets we can be sued for not meeting. We don't want EU funded astroturf NGOs dragging the government to court on the basis of junk science - because we are the ones who pay the bill.
This is why remaining in the EU is so bloody dangerous. The politicos will carry on telling us how we need to "engage in Europe" and will go on with their right-on bidding wars, doing exactly as they please, driving up our bills and piling on the national debt. All the while, the many issues not connected to EU membership go unaddressed. If we remain in the EU the cultural and political gulf that exists between our elites and the public will widen.
Though I have not been impressed with Theresa May and her "Brexit means Brexit" mantra, her conference speech last year was the right tone, if not actually the right policies. I think Theresa May does get it. She is right about citizens of nowhere, and the fact that the "liberal" left went into full hyperventilation mode tells you she was over the target. May understands that the government very seriously needs to pay attention to what Brits are actually saying - and any conservative party that wants to stay in government needs to start offending wet-lettuce metro types. Too bad she's chickened out.
Ultimately right-on opinions are socially convenient. Nobody calls you a bigot or a racist or a luddite if you go with the flow and duck the issues. There is even social reward for conformity. That's why the weak minded and the moral cowards tend to be remainers. It takes guts to say that climate change targets (irrespective of the science) are bad news. It takes guts to say that yes, there are social problems from immigration. It takes guts to challenge the consensus on foreign aid.
The politicians duck it because talking about these issues means saying inconvenient and uncomfortable things. All the while, the cynical and morally debased left go out of their way to paint anyone expressing unrefined and inconvenient views as "far right" to the point where no politician dare break the liberal consensus. There is no faster way to end a political career. The consequence of this is that predators remain free to roam the streets of Rotherham and the anger intensifies.
While that is not directly connected to the EU, the EU is paralysed by a similar political correctness and metro-liberal agenda. This is why conservative Eastern Europe is starting to pull away. Meanwhile, because the EU suffers from the same disconnect, it assumes the feedback it gets from EU funded astroturf NGOs is genuine public sentiment. The tail is wagging the dog and policy continues to widen the cultural gulf between the government and the governed.
The EU genuinely thinks the peoples of Europe are clamouring for it to do more on climate change and toughen up recycling targets and gender equality measures. It is subject to is own insular obsessions. Politically correct fads. Meanwhile it is ignoring what people actually want - ie sorting out the ever more acute migration crisis and reforming the trade policies make it worse. It is incapable of responding.
But go go ahead remainers. Kill Brexit. Tell seventeen million people that their vote didn't count and that change isn't going to happen. Tell the politicians carry on as they were. Keep brushing it under the carpet. Keep wagging the finger at uncouth working class people. Keep piling on the debt, keep ramping up the bills, and see where that gets you. Go on, I dare you. You'll be the midwife to something far worse than Ukip - and I might even vote for it - if that is what it takes.
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