A right old mess

I'm not following every last twist and turn of the Tory leadership contest. I'm keeping my eye on it hoping for a glimmer of realisation but all the candidates thus far are entertaining their own private delusions proving they have failed to stay on top of the issues. At this point one starts to wonder if our MPs are even capable of adult engagement.

There have been some encouraging noises from Rory Stewart in respect of no deal, bringing a refreshing realism to the debate but that does him no favours if he wants to win. The party expects to be told that which they want to hear rather than the truth. But then Stewart is also short on solutions. He recognises that the withdrawal agreement is pretty much our only option but doesn't say how he'll get it past a deadlocked parliament.

This, though, is hardly important in that he is not going to win. He is considered too much of a wet by the party and though political nerds have warmed to him he has no hope of winning Brexiters over. Thus we are left with a spectrum of equally dreadful candidates each pushing their respective fantasies and whoever we have foisted upon us is going to be so far from adequate that it almost ceases to matter. As with much else lately we are playing a waiting game while the media fills the dead space with trivia and manufactured controversy.

This puts us back in familiar territory, left to speculate over a handful of outcomes and none of them are good. That explains the lack of activity on this blog. Until we have a new PM and an indication which way this is going, there is little to be said. We have to turn to the real world for signs of actual news.

In respect of that, we see the beginnings of a slow motion trainwreck. We are told that Britain is ready for a no deal Brexit while the Farmer's Guardian reports that a damning new report from the National Audit Office has revealed a potential IT nightmare which could leave farmers entering Defra’s public money for public goods scheme out of pocket.

Whenever you look under the bonnet of any sector you find complex regulatory systems all dependent on the exchange of data and all systems depend on a degree of regulatory continuity. The moment we pull the rug out these systems will cease to function without a fundamental redesign which doesn't happen overnight. Where government is concerned we're talking about years rather than months. Several government departments could very easily fall into a near permanent state of dysfunction leaving industry to fend for itself.

The full extent of this kind of chaos is difficult to quantify but even if the contingency measures manage to keep the ports clear of backlogs we're still looking at systems that are no longer recognised or authorised by the EU which will affect everything from farming to energy production. This much hasn't been understood by politicians who have no experience or comprehension of these such systems and the issues are not being treated with the seriousness they deserve.

This is where we are badly let down by a media which seems to think that if it isn't connected to the Tory leadership contest then it just isn't news, right about the time where there is probably ample news in the wider economy if only they cared to look. They are instead focused on the Peterborough by-election which in isolation won't tell us very much and if there is a lesson for the Tories, they will grasp the wrong end of the stick with both hands.

What the Tories fail to grasp is that they can keep their party faithful on side by taking us out without a deal, thus neutralising the threat of the Brexit Party, but there are some two years between exit day and the next general election whereupon there will be a constant stream of seriously bad news and major job losses for which the Conservative Party will not be forgiven. Certainly the incompetent response by the oaf Johnson will be noticed by electors, leaving the field wide open for Labour. 

The Tory leadership contest seems to be all about the future survival of the party, but it is difficult to see any outcome where the party is not beaten to the brink of extinction. Even if a moderate like Rory Stewart succeeded in securing a withdrawal agreement, the backlash from the right would be fatal. Since there is no way for the Tories to to stave off defeat, they should be putting the national interest first as a matter of duty - but this they will not do. Not least as there is no agreement on what the national interest actually is. 

In any case we shall soon have answers to these questions whereby we shall have a new prime minister selected by a handful of Tory members pushing an agenda that has no explicit mandate and likely in defiance of Parliament. Though much else will be clouded, it will be crystal clear that British democracy is is barely worthy of the name.