Monday, 9 September 2019

Another roll of the dice.


A YouGov poll has it that "A majority of both Conservative (55%) and Leave (60%) voters, however, think a no-deal Brexit would result in a clean break from the EU, meaning the country could then focus on something else".

As one tweeter puts it "This isn't a matter of opinion. They are just actually wrong and misinformed. No deal Brexit will resolve nothing and we will still have to come to an arrangement with Europe, just with added chaos and economic dislocation".

This poll, though, perhaps explains why leavers are hell bent on leaving without a deal. The penny has not dropped that no deal cannot stay no deal. Those of us who have sought to inform the debate have failed. Not surprising when up against deliberate misinformation from the right wing press.

It seems, though, that the game is still in play. Parliament has lodged its bill to delay Brexit and resurrect the withdrawal agreement, and Johnson likely won't get his election without committing to an extension. Chances are MPs will trade another chance to ratify the withdrawal agreement for an all or nothing general election. Johnson has to. He has no deal of his own to present to the house. He's boxed in on all sides.

It looks like Johnson is desperately working on the idea that he can handbag the "colleagues" at the European Council and pull off a deal, which he can take home in triumph and put to parliament for a vote - a total fantasy, but that's all he's got. Even if he gets anything, parliament may reject it just to embarrass him - although there is an element here that if he does get a deal, he doesn't have to apply for an extension. Parliament could be hoist with its own petard.

None of this speculation adds value though. There's weeks more of this insanity and we won't know until we know. Between now and then we're just going to be refighting the referendum and having the same old tired arguments. Nothing is resolved until we have a new parliament with some of the dead wood cut away. We may yet leave the EU but there's a good chance we'll all be bored to death before the day comes. Perhaps that's Remain's way of killing off those older voters they despise so much?

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