What makes me such an expert?

I've just had a Dutch journalist on the phone asking about me and The Leave Alliance. He wanted to know what it is that makes me, formerly an IT professional, an authority on Brexit and trade - wondering what my credentials are and why so many people seem to trust this blog.

As it happens I am not an expert. I'm a very good generalist. Where trade is concerned I'm only expert by contrast with the Brexiters who know precisely nothing about it. But then you don't have to be an expert. Trade is as complex as you want to make it but in general the principles of the discipline are simple. It takes five minutes to learn and a lifetime to master. It's just that politicians have never taken those five minutes necessary to understand what the game is.

My golden rule in all this is that the simple answer is usually the wrong answer. It comes from appreciating that the single market is not a "trade bloc", rather it is a system of government with multiple crossovers - and the system is greater than the sum of its parts. This is why the EU does not allow cherry picking.

But even then it doesn't take a rocket scientist (or a trade expert) to work out that delays at the ports cost money and adding overheads to the the cost of exporting makes your goods less competitive. It doesn't matter if goods are tariff free if you still face an added three hours queueing in traffic to then have your shipment diverted, inspected and examined. Non-tariff barriers to trade come in many forms not least differences between regulatory regimes which is why they went to the bother of creating the single market to begin with.

As to why all these measures on the border exist, the EU is looking to safeguard its own standards on everything from toy safety to pollution controls. If you want to minimise your overheads you have to maximise your compliance. Our frictionless supply chains are the product of regulatory harmonisation and behind the border enforcement. Then if you are a party to this system, obviously you can't make unilateral decisions that undermine the integrity of this system. That is the basis for understanding the dispute on the Irish border.

In many respects the debate is polluted by the term "free trade deal" in that "free trade" as imagined by free market Tories does not exist. Trade agreements are treaties governing the conditions of transactions where each agreement has ramifications for the next. Each must be evaluated to see how it interacts with existing frameworks. Then of course trade deals are not clinical instruments of commerce. They are intensely political and very often used to advance foreign policy objectives which can often contrast and contradict. It is therefore a matter of prioritising.

Once you scratch the surface (and I have certainly done that) it becomes apparent that the simplistic narratives advanced by Brexiteers and remainers alike bear little relation to how things work in the real world. This blog is an attempt at a corrective. For what that's worth. I'm not always right.

But then I was asked why I appear to be so angry and sarcastic on Twitter. The anger is easily explained. Both out politicians and media should after three years have a far better handle on the issues than they do - and after all this time have no excuse for getting basic concepts wrong. Even now they are still struggling with the basics of Article 50. Then what makes me absolutely livid is the Brexiteers advancing some wildly inaccurate narratives and doing so quite deliberately. I have a distaste for imprecision and I especially don't like politicians lying to us. That they are notionally on my side is neither here nor there. They don't get a free pass. As to the sarcasm, after four years of spelling out the basics, sarcasm is all I have left. My patience is exhausted.

Suffice to say that after four years of intensive debate and reading countless agreements and regulations and books on the subject, I now have pretty good idea of what I know but also how much there is out there I don't know - so while you can dispute my expertise it's safe to say I know a bullshitter when I see one - and bullshit is something we need a lot less of if we are to successfully navigate the challenges of Brexit. If we can't confront the realities head on then we will fall into every trap along the way. Nothing is served by lying to others - or ourselves.