Friday, 20 July 2018

Endgame.


I cannot contain my loathing of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson and John Redwood et al. They are wreckers and liars manipulating the stupid and the easily led.

When you've been in a political and economic union for forty years things get a bit complicated. There is layer upon layer of complexity and no one person understands it all and never will. It's massive and anyone claiming to understand it fully is lying or overconfident.

For instance, the aviation sector covers everything from landing slots to safety certification where often it is difficult to tell what is an EU competence and where the line of delineation is between the EU and the nation state.

The same is true of energy and utilities. Legal systems are interwoven and embody all manner of standards where it is never immediately obvious where they come from - and this is an issue where even the Commission can't keep track of it.

A lot of technical governance is eminently sensible and when it is expert led regulation for a specific purpose then it makes sense to pool research and experiences to produce it. Then there's trade governance which again makes a lot of sense.

There are then measures which are either vanity projects - entirely politically motivated, or directives designed to weaken national control on things like energy markets and force interdependency. This is supranationalist ideology at work.

Here the great difficulty is telling them all apart. What do we want to keep and what do we want to junk? And obviously, if we are junking certain bits of it the EU will have its own view as to what it is prepared to entertain.

And when you have established regulatory systems of labyrinthine complexity, it is not so easy to unpick them, and not actually valuable to do so. Changing them from being integrated systems to standalone regulatory regimes is no easy feat.

Everybody and their dog has an opinion on how it can be done but usually they're speaking in terms of trade in goods which says nothing of pharmaceuticals, chemicals, maritime surveillance. It would take years of study for any one person just to understand the fishing regime.

And then in blunders the Brexit clown car with Johnson's aspirational guff, bypassing the details entirely while snakes like JRM and Redwood offer their simplistic nostrums - plucked out of the air while possessing zero subject knowledge.

All the while JRM offers us his "insight" on why we can trade on WTO terms alone - wilfully avoiding the issue of non tariff barriers and the multitude of other areas beyond trade in goods. He's not thick so we can put it down to mendacity.

So here we are at a crucial point in history - upon which our wealth, prosperity and international standing turns - and we have a band of liars making things up, denying reality and throwing tantrums every time someone attempts to address the reality.

Of itself that is objectively disgusting. They lie without remorse, they fabricate, they deflect and they evade. There is no dialogue. Only propaganda. And worst of all, they think it's funny. They pretend details don't matter.

Rees-Mogg is a skilled political operator. He knows exactly how to manipulate the weak-minded which is why he has a loyal following of intellectually subnormal kippers. He's leveraging that to visit an economic calamity on us.

Meanwhile the oafish Johnson doesn't even have an agenda for the country. His sole concern is his personal ambition and in pursuit of that, any lie will do. He knows his persona still cons plenty of ordinary people.

Meanwhile they have their stooges in the Tory apparatus to do their dirty work for them, not least the TPA and Low Fact Chloe, along with the unbelievably dishonest BrexitCentral and the IEA. It's pure propaganda.

So far as they are concerned, forty years of technical integration can be undone at the stroke of a pen, and who cares who gets hurt or how it damages relationships with our allies? Not least those we trade with via the EU.

These are men without principle, without decency, without honour. They are the saboteurs and wreckers. They don't care about Brexit. Brexit to them is just a window of opportunity for their dogmatic "free trade" ideas - all of which are bullshit.

Certain laws and Blogger terms and conditions prevent me from saying in full what I think of these men - and what should be done to them, but if there is a hell, they are surely going there. Where else would evil go?

It now looks like no deal is unavoidable. Mrs May has gone as far as she can go, politically, with the White Paper. Yet this cannot be accepted by the EU. Thus, when the EU rejects it - which they must do - this opens the way for a "no deal" walk-out

The only thing is that Brussels must be aware of this. They will be calculating the odds and working out their own game plan. They'll say "we're nearly there", right up to the time the shutters come down, calling right up to the very last minute for more UK proposals.

Thus, we will get a time expiry without any dramatic rejection and UK walk-out. The EU then unilaterally implements time-limited mitigating measures which keep the show on the road more or less. These will be hailed as "concessions" by the UK and treated as a victory.

But they will be a trap. Unilaterally given, they can be unilaterally withdrawn - with staged removal as the EU/MS get their systems in place. Progressively, we find the walls closing in, a slow-motion train wreck rather than a big-bang.

The UK will then have to come, cap in hand, to Brussels, asking for a deal, which will be set entirely on the EU's terms. We will be royally shafted. That's when the screaming will start and politics starts to fall apart.

Meanwhile, the Ultras have over-reached themselves. They have set themselves up for a fall, claiming that "no deal" is benign. When the shit hits the fan, they will need to go into hiding. Even their local associations will want blood.

They'll try the meme that its "punishment" from the EU, but the EU is already onto that one. It won't stick. The key will be when the media turns against them and the politicians start panicking. At that point the Tory right is finished.

They are already on thin ice, with their support waning and in so doing they are eroding support for Brexit. There is still a way to go before the final whistle and plenty time yet to expose their game and shout it from the rooftops.

We may not be able to stop them and they will hold Mrs May hostage right to the end, if indeed they do not remove her. But that will be their final miscalculation. After that they are done.

So as much as we need to prepare for no deal - which is inevitable, we must mount up the pressure to join Efta as soon as the shit hits the fan - by which time many will have dropped their objection to it out of necessity and there'll be nothing to stop the next government.

This is why you, dear reader must be primed and get to grips with the EEA Efta arguments. Brexit can still be salvaged after the fact. A "no deal" will destroy the "ultras" and in a crisis scenario that follows, people will be disposed to listen to a reasoned solution.

I do not see that there is any way to stop them for the moment, so we are all passengers of events for the time being, but we can ensure that they are punished for what they are about to do to us and that they do not get away with it.

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