On course for self-destruction

Though virtually everything this government does feels like a calculated insult, I keep reminding myself that sooner or later the Tories are going to self-destruct. They have an easy year ahead. They've got a majority with much of the press on their side who'll gladly promote the "EU intransigence" narrative. If there is a deal then it's "hail the conquering hero" and if there isn't, then they'll ramp up the propaganda to blame the EU.

In the meantime they are covered by the transition period where essentially we are in effect still in the EU, so we have yet to feel any of the serious implications. But as soon as we Brexit for real, to steal a quote from Rafael Behr, "Brexit must breathe the same air as other political projects. It sheds the immunity of abstraction and enters the realm of evidence". That's where it gets interesting.

According to a new UNCTAD study non-tariff measures (NTMs) could cause major fractures in post-exit trade relations between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), knocking up to US$32 billion, or 14 per cent, off of UK exports to the EU. I actually think they are under-pricing it, especially if there's no deal. We can argue the toss over numbers but the unknowable secondary impacts are sure to be profound and there is sure to be a souring of relations between the UK and EU.

What's going to shake the Tories is the speed thinks begin to tank for them. They broke the first rule of propaganda. Never get high on your own supply. They've convinced themselves they can manage away the consequences. One example of this, as eureferendum.com notes, is aviation. The UK government believes we can establish a Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement (BASA). This, the White Paper says, "will facilitate the recognition of aviation safety standards and regulatory cooperation between the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)".

But what this doesn't recognise is that the UK's system of aviation safety regulation has largely been dismantled, as authority has been ceded to EASA. Thus, the UK aerospace industry body ADS, has said it would take approximately 5-10 years for the CAA to rebuild its safety regulation capability to take over from EASA. That the UK can therefore stand as a "sovereign equal" with the EU, with the "right to manage their own resources as they see fit", is sheer wishful thinking. In aviation and in so many other areas, we have lost much of our domestic legislative capabilities and are entirely reliant on the EU to manage our legislative processes.

In the attempt to deceive the public that no deal, or even a "basic FTA" would be entirely manageable, they have convinced themselves. They've written off every industry concern as "project fear" and shrugged off any notion that regulatory issues are more complex than they seem. Consequently they're going to be the most surprised when, less than six months after the end of the transition, they are in crisis management mode. They'll have problems on top of problems with lots of nasties even we didn't anticipate crawling out of the woodwork.

That would be difficult enough for any government, but especially so for this one having purged a great many of its experienced civil servants who know how the systems work. Johnson will be reliant on his SpAdocracy to paper over the cracks - and these are not noted men and women of intellect or ability. It's difficult to see how Johnson can hold the line even with the Telegraph and Spectator going full pelt to blame the EU. The sort of bland propagandising they're currently engaged in has the luxury of there being no real world consequences that interrupt normal life, but when there are tangible problems it won't matter to the man in the street whose fault it is. They'll just want it resolved.

By this point the Johnson administration will be on the wrong side of its honeymoon period. The conflict between the civil service and Patel won't be the last high profile flashpoint, and it won't be long before the government is mired in scandals. The media is sitting on a goldmine dirt to dish out when the time is right. If Labour can climb out of its hole and start opposing then Johnson could be looking at a serious hammering come the next election.

Here it should not be forgotten that Johnson's majority is largely a product of Corbyn. Johnson was the least awful option but still pretty bloody awful. Johnson was already viewed as boorish and crass. Having inflicted considerable damage on the UK economy, there will be a natural atrophy in Tory support, but also from the hard right who are already beginning to notice that this administration is not serious about tackling immigration, and apart from Brexit, everything else seems to be continuity Cameron.

Johnson then also has to contend with the farming lobby who by then will be wishing they were still in the CAP. With the export potential crushed, facing added competition with reduced subsidies, rural Brexiter Tories may find that for the first time in a generation their seats are far from safe. If the Lib Dems get their act together then they stand to pick up a lot of the protest vote.

It looks like the Corbyn experiment has gifted Johnson a two term government but by the end of two terms this government will be at the very fag end of its authority. There's a good chance this government will go out the same way Major's did - dogged by scandal and mired in sleaze with an abysmal track record. If at that point the opposition has even a halfway credible economic resuscitation plan then the Tories are out on their ear. 

The next few months are sure to be insufferable and the hubris will grate but Johnson is storing up a world of hurt for the Conservative Party and the country. The country can survive it, but I'm not sure the Tory party can.