Tuesday, 6 June 2017

Until we reform our politics, terrorism is the new normal

I am coming round to the idea that jihad must be looked at from an epidemiological perspective. Some strains of the same virus are more lethal than others - and you can be a carrier of a virus without it actually killing you. Looked at in the round we see that the manifestations move around in different hosts. There are spheres of islamism geared to the political sea they swim in. Unless you look for specific cures fro specific strains then you are using a generic medicine that will lose potency over time if it even works at all.

As with food poisoning, certain bacteria can be entirely harmless or you can make the risks manageable - but if you have a filthy kitchen then you are creating the conditions for it to thrive. In that respect Syria is the filthy kitchen on our doorstep. What we are seeing is an epidemic mostly related to that conflict (and of course, Libya) where once again we find that the lack of coherent and holistic policy is exacerbating the issues.

Once again we find ourselves looking at everything from community policy right through to international trade. Yet again it points to the need for establishing good governance and sustainable economic activity. Take fishing for example. As soon as the EU moves in its industrial seabed vacuums, destroying habitats in the process, you find that fish stocks collapse and consequently so does the local economy. Settlements then uproot and go in search of a better life - if not by seeking passage to Europe then by joining militias who will try to take over weak governments.

We already know this is one of the push factors for immigration, Similarly careless free trade initiatives that allow the West to dump it surpluses create havoc and is actually a good part of the reason why the Taleban grow poppy and not grain. One thing the west is quite adept at is giving people a reason to emigrate. Though I would stop short of saying the West is to blame for jihad, we are a primary driver of migration and if we want lower levels of immigration we might start to think about not collapsing up their economies.

Then of course we could certainly close down various human rights rules which act as a back door for extended family and we could very easily look at reforming the Geneva Convention on refugees to deter abuse of the asylum system.

We can bleat about border controls until the cows come home but without installing a database state and monitoring every arrival and departure we won't solve the problem - and even then, only maybe. We really do need to look at the drivers and the perverse incentives. Even the NGOs are now saying that rescue boats are doing the job of people smugglers. They don't even put a full tank of fuel on the boats now, knowing that they only need get as far as the rescue ships. We do not have a functioning system of deterrence. Moreover we're not doing enough to tackle the counterfeiting and fraud that finances it all.

But then it's all very well saying this. We could do all this and even assuming we could be successful at it (doubtful), chances are we're still vulnerable to these attacks. The reason being that Jihad is a nebulous concept and like a virus, it evolves and adapts. There is no end in sight. In a globalised world with unprecedented movements of people and an ever growing world population, this really is the new normal.

Ultimately, though, I am pessimistic. We need intelligent solutions but we have a polity incapable of recognising or implementing them. We need to fix immigration but they've gone for the populist low hanging fruit of ending freedom of movement which will largely accomplishing nothing in terms of domestic security. We need to end the rescue service that makes our Coast Guard a taxi service for economic migrants. We need to revisit obsolete human rights laws that allow extended family from the back hills of nowhere to come in without scrutiny. But none of that is going to happen. The left won't let us. Try implementing any of these policies and it will start raining hashtags. Refugees welcome! Oh and the classic trope of "evil tories want to abolish our human rights".

Ultimately we have become a nation of infants incapable of recognising existential threats, incapable of political maturity and the post-patriotism of the left will ultimately see Britain destroyed before they give an inch. Only when it's their daughters being raped and murdered will they reconsider their corrosive politics, and even then, only maybe.

As for repairing our broken trade policy, fuhgeddaboudit. We can't even get our politicians to learn the basics. I'm sorry to say this folks, but unless we radically change our politics and unless we get rid of these venal, asinine, crass virtue signallers we will never have anything even approaching a defence to this and we will still be having this exact conversation in another twenty years while everything we value is flushed down the toilet.

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