Whether intentional or not, pretending the Chequers deal is "Brexit in name only" is a strategic masterstroke on the part of the ultras. It makes it look like Brussels is playing hardball even when Theresa May has capitulated to their demands. It plays into the narrative that Brussels is not an honest broker and isn't doesn't even want a deal. It even serves May well in that she can say she made her best possible offer and still she was slapped down.
It's actually so ingenious one could even speculate that May never intended to present a plan the EU could accept. Either way as political scheming goes this up there with the most devious. It doesn't need to fool everybody. It only need fool the party faithful and that doesn't take much doing. The public will believe whatever they are told. They were told David Cameron had "used the veto" which passed into common legend without question.
What we can expect from here on in is every branch of government parroting the same handful of talking points. We've been subjected to a barrage of pro no-deal propaganda from the Tory apparatus for a while now - but from today the government is a willing participant in the deception and is setting the EU up to take the blame for failure. Everything else is pantomime.
A more generous assessment would be that the government is simply preparing its own strategic backstop, ensuring all the excuses are in place, but still hoping for a final hour breakthrough. That being the case there is a danger the government creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where it believes that no deal is survivable thus will let it happen.
Should we leave without a deal a lot will depend on the success of whatever contingency plans are in place. We don't have much of an idea what such plans look like in that the government is keen to keep a lid on it and the specifics are only really known to the civil services. No doubt there will be political orders in place to ensure the headline impacts are kept to a minimum.
In this I am reminded of the scene in A Bridge Too Far where Major General Robert Urquhart details his method of retreat by placing the dead and wounded on machine-gun posts to give the impression that his forces were still in place, while the main force slipped away quietly in the night. He describes this as like a collapsing paper bag.
For a while it may look like things are holding up and the press will run a barrage of optimistic stories failing to spot the underlying trends which will point to a longer term collapse of trade. Unemployment is a trailing indicator and the first wave of job shedding will with nothing in comparison with the longer term bleed.
Even if by some miracle Brexit preparations prove adequate we will still find business caught unawares, many of whom have simply assumed the government will sort something out and that the consequences of no deal are so dire that neither side would allow it to happen. That complacency runs all the way to the top of the business world.
The next few weeks will feed that false sense of security as we see a drip of reports that trade deals will be rolled over with third countries. Businesses who don't trade with Europe will assume Brexit doesn't affect them. They are in for a few nasty surprises.
At this point I think our fate is sealed. Complacency runs deep and there is no chance of sufficiently popularising the EEA option in time. Remainers have thrown all their energy into remaining while leavers are now determined to leave at any cost. Elements of the remainer media are half-heatedly unspinning the myths they created about the Norway option but it's too little and too late. All the while no warning, however drastic, will deter the Tory ultras. Events have taken on a life of their own and the fever has to burn itself out.
What happens thereafter is really anyone's guess. Tory excuses won't last and the party will likely rip itself to pieces. The political incoherence we see now will look like relative stability in contrast. The power will form up around anyone with a coherent recovery plan and the public will even stomach Labour if they come up with something halfway achievable. The only certainty is that the Conservative Party as we know it is a dead man walking.
Right now politics is held together only because the consequences of Brexit are hypothetical, highly debatable and not yet upon us. We won't know until we know. When we do, the whole political landscape will change. There will be a political bloodthirst on all sides and the Tories will have to account for their arrogance and dishonesty. Since the internet never forgets, the Ultras will have uncomfortable questions to answer. Brexit will be a graveyard for the careers of Tories.
Brexit is going to redefine politics. Moreover it will be a reckoning for our media too. All those thinks tanks and Tory publications who told us we can trade on WTO terms will have to account for themselves. This will haunt them for years to come. They can't say they were not warned. They can't say none of this could be predicted. They can't say it wasn't their fault and the EU is not going to take the rap for it. There is no passing the buck on this one. It is ironic that we should have fought for Brexit for greater political accountability because the first to be held accountable will indeed be the Brexit ultras. It's quite delicious isn't it?
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