So now what?

We have a bit of a problem. May has suffered a resounding defeat. There is now to be a vote of no confidence though it is widely assumed the government will survive it. Speaking to the house Theresa May took a more conciliatory tone, inviting a cross party effort to seek a resolution but there's one small problem. The deal is not up for negotiation.

No doubt we will see a flurry of activity with all corners submitting their little nostrums. The Boles clan are now pushing Common Market 2.0 while the Brexiters will no doubt recycle some or other nonsense from the IEA or Economists for Free Trade. All of them missing the point.

The point here is that the Political Declaration is the space given over for the destination. It is deliberately vague to allow options when we get as far as scoping the future relationship. That is its inherent value. As such no options are off the table provided there is a withdrawal agreement in place to address the matter of financial obligations, citizens rights and the Irish border.

Those seeking to "bin the backstop" are out of time and out of luck. We have already been through this mill and the backstop is what it is precisely because the UK government could not come up with a viable alternative. Now, the only way to avoid it is to agree to the withdrawal agreement, then press on with holding the EU to Article 19 of the Political Declaration. "The Parties recall their determination to replace the backstop solution on Northern Ireland by a subsequent agreement that establishes alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing".

There is, in my view, only one way to make that a reality and that is a variant of the EEA option. Beyond that, the best we can hope for is an FTA with maximum facilitation with a view to dismantling the backstop as the system matures. To assert that Common Market 2.0 or whatever it is they are now calling their mangled Norway enterprise can serve as an alternative to May's deal is to once again disregard the sequencing of Article 50. We are going round in circles.

Now that the deal is defeated we will dance our last little dance in Westminster, only to have the facts spelled out by Brussels once more. Whatever Britain may want, it is not going to get it without first agreeing to the backstop as is. The only thing that would surprise me at this point is if the EU even agreed to change the font.

Though there is talk of extending Article 50, it is difficult to see what purpose this would solve in that the EU is not going to reset talks. Pulling on any thread risks unravelling the whole deal and we are back where we started, with months more of the same bickering and infighting. I can only see Article 50 being extended on the nod for the purposes of ratification.

This then takes us right up to the wire, where Mrs May will have to resurrect her deal to once again put before parliament, with nothing to show for whatever transpires in the meantime, where MPs will have to decide once and for all whether it is this deal, no deal or one last ditch attempt to remain. Parliament will then have to decide once and for all whether it is going to honour the 2016 vote or not.

Whether the fear of no deal is sufficient to focus minds remains to be seen. If MPs are still struggling to understand the sequencing and believe that this defeat is a carte blanche to start over then it is unlikely they understand the risks of the game they are playing.

Much of the day has been chewed up with debate about the deal, and everyone can come up with a reason to hate it, but the fact remains that it is the only deal, and if we want to progress Brexit to the next stage without crashing out then it remains the only choice. It all now depends on that penny dropping.