Tuesday, 21 February 2017

Brexit: we are going to need a miracle

From the Guardian:
"Asked what the chief obstacles Britain faced in the coming negotiations were, Estonia’s chief Brexit negotiator, Matti Maasikas said: “Mr Davis maintained the line of the prime minister that they think that due to their regulatory convergence that the trade agreement can be negotiated in the two-year period. Everyone else is saying: ‘Do you really think that an agreement is negotiable in this time period?’ And the answer [from Davis] is: ‘We think it is feasible because we have regulatory convergence."
Except those are regulations which give legal effect to EU institutions (which we are pulling out of) and you need a mechanism to maintain convergence. You would have an outside chance of a basic agreement in two years (in a perfect world) if you adopted all the rules, institutions and agencies and recognised the ECJ - along with paying your dues - but when starting from a position of total ignorance there is no way this pathetic little man can succeed.

Because the government knows so little and expects so much, the process will very rapidly stall. There is nothing in the UK proposal which can be practically put into effect. Ironically, the only thing that can save us now is EU commission officials with whatever their counter proposal is. It will be met with blank stares by UK ministers who haven't even begun to understand how the system works.

If reports are correct then we are only a matter of weeks away from triggering Article 50. We are going into what are probably the most complex negotiations ever with a government which knows next to nothing. Unless the EU is feeling extremely generous in explaining the basics to our quarterwit Brexiteers then it is difficult to see how this does not end in failure. In this, ignorance is bad enough but when you add a large dose of Tory arrogance, it seems like crash and burn Brexit is inevitable.

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