I have been a reader of EU affairs for a decade or more now and there is still much to learn and even I didn't realise the extent of EU integration. Where technical governance is concerned, practically every industry is governed by the EU to one extent or other.
To leave the EU will require microsurgery over many years because if we don't do it carefully then we kill a number of industries stone dead - pharmaceuticals and aerospace especially. Leaving without a deal will kill the better part of a million jobs in the first year.
This is not project fear. This is observable truth. If our certifications and authorisations are not valid then there's no point in people turning up for work because their work is not recognised as legal or insurable. This is not a case of economists making voodoo projections. This is simply a matter of logic. Either you have permission to operate or you don't. There are no WTO rules that compel the EU to accept unlicensed goods and services.
Many of you have denied that there will be chaos at the ports - saying this government will find a workaround. Even if you're right still that means airlines repaired in the UK are not cleared to fly in EU airspace. Heathrow comes to a standstill.
Moreover there WILL be a hard border in Ireland. It's a matter of international law. UK trade also then collapses because all our trade is done through third country deals held by the EU. We will have no formal trade relations with other countries. There are ways in which the damage can be mitigated so goods keep rolling - but that says nothing of our services exports which is 80% of our trade. That's at least another million jobs right there.
No Rees-Mogg "fwee twade" theory is going to bail us out. These deals take years and they can never equate to the £240bn of trade we do with the EU. An FTA with the EU can't come close either. Any halfway respectable trade analyst will tell you that. To negotiate anything like a stable replacement relationship will take several years - which either means facing the cliff edge or years in a limbo transition - zombie Brexit that will probably end up being the status quo. A miserable no mans land.
So if you do want to leave and you want to do it without a decade long depression, there is absolutely no alternative but to join Efta and retain the EEA. It is that simple. For all its flaws it at least gets us out and we know how the system works.
The ultra Brexiters will tell you all manner of lies about the EEA - you know the lies as well as I do by now. The "no say in the rules" bullshit and the "EEA is not leaving the EU routine, despite it being only 25% of the EU aquis. And though EEA is not ideal, it is the only realistic solution. It's the only way to sort out the border issues and maintain trade. It is impossible to overstate the damage a hard Brexit of any kind will do. It will mean massive defence and health cuts.
It's easy to give into nihilistic tendencies and say let it all burn - and believe me I have some sympathy with that view, but hard Brexit will come at enormous economic and human cost that we won't recover from in our lifetimes.
An EU free future is possible but we must not underestimate the amount of control it has accumulated over the years and how much trade depends on the hidden integration that is known about by few and understood by fewer. It is a massive legal engineering undertaking.
Nobody serious thinks an FTA with the EU is sufficient. We are talking about the most sophisticated regulatory system ever created running everything from fisheries to power stations. It cannot simply be copied and pasted.
The Tory fixation with tariffs doesn't begin to address the issues and collectively we haven't understood the scale of the problems even a soft Brexit creates. EEA helps but it is no magic bullet. We still need parallel agreements or industry specific transitional frameworks.
We will also need to negotiate a mechanism to phase out the customs union and to ensure we safeguard the automotive sector. Our EEA relationship will need a number of additional protocols to make it work. There are legacy issues we will face having been an EU member.
There is a mammoth task ahead with mammoth risks - and as much as the effects will damage British industry, the uncertainty is a killer. We cannot afford any more prevarication from government nor can we allow any more Tory Brexiter deceptions. In spirit I might agree with the tub-thumping Brexit speeches on Question Time and Brexit rhetoric may be pleasing to hear - but we can't keep re-fighting the referendum. Decisions now have to be made about which way this goes.
This is why I have no time for the Brendan O'Neills and Hartley-Brewers of this world. They are superficial know nothings who don;t do detail. The think tank cretins are no better. They know nothing about the functioning of trade and the single market.
What we are dealing with is shallow unserious self-promotors who have no idea what they are saying and cannot begin to comprehend the dangers of a bodged Brexit. The UK would have to enact emergency measures just to keep food on the shelves.
That is to say nothing of citizens rights both here and in the EU. They would have no formal legal standing. No corner of the economy will be untouched. This is not an inconsequential game and we can't just pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off. This is deadly serious.
For years we leavers have been complaining that the EU has taken over the machinery of governance without us realising. That much was 100% true - yet now leavers have let their brains drool out of their arses and now we're pretending leaving has no profound effects. Shameful.
I keep making this case but then ignorant Brexit grunters just grunt "bollocks". So they are in fact saying that the EU *hasn't* taken control of aerospace, fishing, agriculture, energy and all points between. If that's what you think then why the fuck did you vote to leave?
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