Monday, 18 April 2016

Guest blog post from Hugo Dixon

The treasury has released a report saying that the least worst Brexit option would in fifteen years time cost the average household £2600.

Obviously this factors in every single regulatory change currently in progress, all the revisions to the WTO ROO procedures, the Trade Facilitation Agreement, the globalisation of regulation taking the single market out of EU control, the end of the war in Syria, a global correction in oil prices and steel - and shipping sector reforms. Because, y'know, it would be somewhat negligent if you didn't.

And obviously economists are always right about what's happening in the global economy not least because they managed to predict the 2008 crash with perfect clarity and were able to pinpoint the cause and solution in under six months without a recession. So obviously we can take this report very seriously indeed.

We all know that economists have perfect vision into the future and a total command of regulatory issues pertaining to non-tariff barriers. They are also able to map every single transaction and calculate every single crop yield from each harvest, and predict with near total accuracy which trends will see new export potential. That's why we have a thriving steel industry that isn't in any way in need of rescue. It's because Brexit causes uncertainty that they can be certain that it will cost £2600.

That's why I take the government completely seriously. They have a long standing track record of accuracy when it comes to economic projections, especially when you consider how the Euro has brought such incredible prosperity to mainland Europe and Greece now has a thriving cash economy. It's also why they never have to revise deficit projections.

This government, like the last, also has a firm commitment to telling the truth and would not in any way bend the facts to suit a convenient narrative. That's why we have avoided having any pointless wars for the last twenty years.

I have total confidence in the honest and transparency of the government, especially the treasury who have not in any way left anybody left out from their exceptional welfare reforms. There is no way the Treasury could be wrong because they have clever people with certificates from the Institute for Studies who all say this is the right number. They have never been wrong before so why should they start now?

We know long term projection modelling always pans out exactly as predicted because the Met Office manages it every day with complete accuracy. With total knowledge of every variable and how it will change over the next fifteen years, not only can we say what the actual figure is, it coincidentally rounds up to the nearest £100. That's how clever the clever people are now and so you shouldn't ask any questions. The government would never lie to you.

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