Wednesday, 27 January 2016

When is Arron Banks going to shape up?

This idiocy from a couple of days ago has been retracted by Leave.EU. However, that doesn't really count for very much when they then tweet the above. What they are saying here, as Stronger In have noticed is that, assuming this pure guesswork is true, making this argument implies no single market access on the same terms. That whole economic suicide thing we've talked about.

Moreover, what it's actually saying, as blogger, White Wednesday points out, Net migration to the UK is currently sitting at circa 340,000 per year. The report is therefore saying that net migration will still stand at c.240,000 per year in the event of a “better deal” at the point of Brexit. That equates to roughly the average annual net migration figure between 2003 and 2014. Yes, the same amount that caused all the froth over immigration in the first place.

Such a policy would largely frustrate the kind of value-added immigration we want while doing precisely nothing about the rest of our shambolic border policy. 

That then brings us on to the efforts of Dan Hodges who, while being largely wrong on the finer details, says "it’s clear the great anti-EU argument is not an anti-EU argument at all. It’s essentially an anti-immigration argument. The Out camp hasn’t even begun to set out a coherent vision of Britain’s place in the world outside of the EU. A few less Polish plumbers. That’s it."

If Hodges could look outside of his own dismal little circle, he would see that there is a thriving debate going on over and above the media's heads, but since nothing outside their own gossip circles exists by their estimations, we could never expect anything like accuracy from such people. However, the tone and the vibe is about right.

All we get from the Leave campaign is contradictory, generic whinges about the EU, with no real alternatives set out, silly histrionics and splattergun activity detached from any kind of narrative or strategy. It's Ukip all over again. 

Leave.EU is not working to any plan. It's not even working to a strategy. It is far too absorbed by a turf war to pay any attention to a communications strategy - and with every tweet undermines any sensible message opinion formers might take seriously. They have yet to realise that any strategy that does not work in cohesion with a web strategy is no strategy at all. Whatever Andy Wigmore's talents are, they are not in the realms of communications as his grandiose title suggests. 

The truth of the matter is that the public are not going to look into this much deeper than Dan Hodges has. Their opinions will be shaped by received opinions that start with the likes of Hodges and fan out through word of mouth. The vibe Leave gives off is one of incompetence, cluelessness and disarray. Certainly nothing we can expect voters to gamble the fate of the country on. 

I have previously remarked that Leave.EU is run by a chimpanzee on drugs, However, we have heard through back channels that this is not the case. Given what we've had from Leave.EU in recent weeks, perhaps, if no alternative can be found, it is time to try out the chimpanzee. It's not going to do a worse job and at the very least wouldn't undermine the people who are trying to give us a shot at winning. If this is how it is to be then there is little point wasting another nanosecond on this cause. 

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